Sections

SpecialOperations.com

The Definitive Spec Ops Resource

THE DEFINITIVE SPEC OPS RESOURCE FOR FITNESS AND SELECTION

News

Naval Special Warfare Community Mourns Loss of SEAL Team One Commander

SEAL Team 1 commanding officer Robert “Bobby” Ramirez was found dead in his San Diego area home on December nineteenth at the age of forty-seven. He is survived by his wife, Anne, and their four children. Naval Special Warfare Command officials have announced in a statement that there is no suspicion of foul play in the high-profile SEAL’s death. However, an investigation by the San Diego County Sheriff’s Department remains ongoing. His cause of death has not been immediately disclosed.

Ramirez is pictured here with his wife, Anne. Image courtesy of Facebook/Anne Ramirez

Accolades & Rememberance

Captain David Abernathy, Commander of Naval Special Warfare Group 1 (who oversees all four Coronado-based SEAL Teams), said in a statement to Navy Times, “Bobby was an outstanding leader, devoted husband, and father, and a good friend to us all. This is a devastating loss to our community and all who knew him. We will remain in support of Bobby’s family, friends and teammates during this extremely difficult time.”

Ramirez enlisted in the Navy in 1996 and was commissioned as an officer in 2004. In 2019 he was promoted to the rank of Commander. He had only been in command of Team 1 for one month at the time of his death, having arrived at the unit in June from his last assignment with the Seventh Fleet in Yokosuka, Japan. In his 27-year career, Ramirez was awarded three Combat Action Ribbons and five Bronze Stars, two with “V” devices for valor.

The late Commander attended recruit training in Great Lakes, Illinois, shortly after his enlistment, followed by Combat Systems school in Virginia Beach, Virginia. His next move was to Coronado, California, where he went through Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL (BUD/S) training in 1997.

Commander Ramirez and his family with the children’s faces not shown for the sake of privacy. Image from Facebook/Anne Ramirez

Following  BUD/S, Ramirez was assigned to an East Coast SEAL Team, where he stayed until 2001 when he became a student in the Seaman to Admiral Program at Old Dominion University in his native Virginia. After his 2004 commissioning, he saw combat in multiple theaters across the globe, including Iraq (where he was deployed four times) and Afghanistan (where he was deployed twice). He worked his way up the SEAL ranks and attended the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.

In addition to the awards noted above, Ramirez was also a recipient of the Joint Service Commendation Medal, the Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medals, two Good Conduct Medals, and two Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medals.

Other Recent Command Losses

Ramirez was the second SEAL team commander to die in just over the span of one year. Commander Brian Bourgeois, who led SEAL Team 8, fell to his death during a fast rope training evolution on December fourth, 2021. He was forty-three years old and had spent almost half of his young life (20 years) in the Navy. The decorated combat veteran fell approximately 40 feet from an Army Black Hawk helicopter on the 4th, was taken to a local hospital, and succumbed to his injuries on the 7th with his family by his side.

Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) took charge of the accident investigation because the aircraft involved in the mishap belonged to and was being operated by the Army’s 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR), also known as the Night Stalkers. Factors involved in Commander Bourgeois’s death included communications issues with the aircraft, an early release of the rope that the SEAL was using to descend into the target area, and, according to special operation officials, “a lack of adequate communication between the aircrew and the partner ground force.” 

In a review of the accident, USASOC spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Michael Burns said, “USASOC has taken several steps to prevent future events of this nature, including rewriting multiple procedures to ensure both aircrew and partner ground force take appropriate steps to ensure communication is clear and safety remains an utmost concern for all.”

A 2001 graduate of the US Naval Academy, Bourgeois was selected as a Surface Warfare Officer before he attended BUD/S and became a graduate of class 253. He went on to earn his master’s degree in Defense Analysis from the Naval Postgraduate School. He left behind a wife and five children.

Former Special Forces Colonel Convicted in Domestic Violence Incident, Sentenced

A Falling Star

Owen Ray started his career in the Army as a Private. He worked his way up to becoming a full bird (O-6) Colonel, chief of staff of I Corps, and was a former commander of the 1st Special Forces Group (Airborne). On top of that, he served as a military aid to President Obama for several years. A distinguished achievement by anyone’s accounting. On December 27th, 2020, Ray was arrested on felony domestic violence charges. According to the DuPont, Washington police department, the decorated officer was responsible for a two-hour standoff that resulted in his being charged with two counts of felony harassment, kidnapping in the first degree, and reckless endangerment. Their press release also noted that they were dispatched “for a domestic assault in progress involving a firearm.”

Stars and Stripes reports charging documents sourced in Pierce County Superior Court state that the Special Forces officer has apparently been drinking before the confrontation and threatened to kill any police officer who tried to arrest him. The records show that police arrived at the Ray home shortly after midnight on the 27th, and he allowed his wife and children to leave the scene by 12:30 AM. The assault charges were made as a result of allegations that Ray kicked his wife in the face and chest with his boots. The Colonel maintained that she was injured as a result of him opening a door with her on the other side.

After surrendering, Colonel Ray, 48, was booked into Pierce County Jail and has been free on $100,000 bail since January of 2021.

Media release from the DuPont, Washington police department regarding Col. Ray’s arrest for domestic violence. Image courtesy of Facebook.

A spokesman for I Corps, Lt. Col. Neil Penttila, was quick to inform the press that Ray had been suspended. He put out the following statement:

“We have been in contact with local law enforcement, who have informed us that the investigation is still on-going. While the investigation continues, we will work closely with the Family and the Officer to provide support services including counseling, behavior health support, and legal assistance. The safety of everyone involved is the command’s priority.”

War and Remembrance

Upon hearing of Colonel Ray’s case, I immediately recalled an incident from Fort Carson, Colorado, home of the 10th Special Forces Group (Airborne) and my last duty station. “Incident” is much too mild a word to describe what happened there. That word makes it sound like a minor car accident. It was March 2003. Chief Warrant Officer Bill Powell and his wife Laura lived in Monument, CO…a little less than half an hour’s drive from Post.

Bill had finished up a five-month deployment to Iraq, his third, I believe and had been home for about three weeks. The couple had three kids; the youngest was only seven months old at the time. Around 9:30 PM, a local 911 dispatcher received a call; it was Laura:

“My husband just hit me, and he’s going downstairs to get his gun.” 

According to the police record, she hung up and tried to get away. I heard a bunch of talk at the time about what he supposedly said, but that’s hearsay; I won’t write about any of that. Suffice it to say; I don’t think he was very happy about the police being called on him.

Laura recalled that her husband  pulled a .357 revolver from his waistband, pointed it in her face, and said, “You’re going to watch this.” In the next few moments, police officers made their way through the icy yard. They must have caught Bill’s attention, and when they did, Laura took the split-second opportunity to knock his arm up and away, the weapon no longer pointed at her. Bill’s next movement was to put the gun to his temple and pull the trigger. At the same time as Bill’s fatal shot, a police officer shot him in the arm.

Laura would later tell police that she could make no sense of what happened, “He was a good dad and a good officer,” she said. She further remarked, “The guy standing in that door that night was not my husband. He in no way resembled him. The look in his eyes was, ‘Who are you?’ It was death.” 

This is but one of the numerous suicides of soldiers assigned to the Mountain Post. There have been so many that documentaries have been made about the subject.

No Loss of Life in the Ray Case

Despite the fact that Col. Ray supposedly made numerous threats and had a pistol during his hours-long standoff with police, he didn’t kill anyone. That was a major point that his defense team made to the jury during his trial. According to Cision PR Newswire (Source: Jared Ausserer, Puget Law Group), a jury found Colonel Ray not guilty of kidnapping and not guilty of two counts of harassment. However, he was found guilty of one count of assault in the second degree, one count of harassment, and reckless endangerment.

Colonel Ray on deployment with the flag of Afghanistan in the background. Screenshot from Facebook.

Ray’s defense team argued that he “suffered an emotional and mental breakdown from the cumulative impacts of untreated mental and physical health issues, operational and career stress across eight deployments, high-pressure jobs, and severe relationship distress resulted in a state of complete mental exhaustion.” During his 20 months on bail, Ray was evaluated by the Department of Veterans Affairs and was found to be 100% Permanently and Totally disabled due to the severity of his service-connected health conditions, which included traumatic brain injury and depression.

The Colonel has issued the following statement to the press:

“There are no words that adequately explain how sorry I am for any fear that my children and wife felt the evening I decided to end my life. I deeply regret any unintended physical harm that my wife encountered due to me kicking the door. I never meant to hurt anyone other than myself. For the last two years, I have worked, in complete compliance with the court and legal system, and sought medical treatment to heal mentally and physically. I have faith that the night I decided to live versus ending my life will lead to restoration and hope – not just for myself but for my family and others.”

According to Stars and Stripes, Ray was honorably discharged from the Army last year.

During his time awaiting sentencing, the Colonel must have hired a PR firm because there is an entire professionally done website at owenray.com that addresses how people (especially former service members) can best seek help for issues with their mental health. I’m trying not to be cynical here. It’s not my job to judge Colonel Ray. That has already been done by a jury of his peers. At the same time, I feel that military officers of any rank are not above the law. I’ve closely reviewed the Colonel’s website, and there are a lot of useful resources on there.

On October 28th, 2022, Colonel Ray was sentenced to 60 months behind bars. Shortly thereafter, his attorneys announced their intent to appeal the guilty verdicts. His lead counsel stated:

“We thank the jury and the Court for their hard work, attention, and for the multiple not-guilty verdicts for Colonel Owen Ray. However, Colonel Ray does not agree with the guilty verdicts and will be appealing all convictions. It was clear, based on our discussion with the jury afterwards, there was a misunderstanding and misapplication of the law.  That, along with several issues, will be challenged on appeal.”

This is an ongoing story, and SOFREP will report back at a future time on the results of the appeals process.

Expert Analysis: What Really Caused The Crimea Bridge to Come Down

The Only Physical Link Between Crimea and Russia

In 2014 Vladimir Putin’s government illegally annexed Crimea as part of Russia. By 2018 he had built the longest bridge in Europe to physically connect the two land masses. This was a solid symbol of Russian domination. A $3.7 billion USD symbol. To make matters even clearer, Putin personally drove one of the first trucks over the structure the day it was opened. It’s like a dog peeing on something to claim ownership.

The bridge, of course, is of enormous practical importance. It plays a critical role in getting supplies from Russia, through Crimea, to Russian troops fighting in the Kherson region of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to buckle up to drive one of the first trucks across the Crimean Bridge in 2018. Screenshot from YouTube and Wall Street Journal

On October 8th, at about 0600 local time, an enormous explosion severely damaged the Crimea (or, as it is sometimes called, Kerch) Bridge. Because of its strategic importance, the bridge is one of the most secure structures in the world. Security cameras cover almost every inch.

Please watch the footage below made available through Twitter and Russian Media Monitor. Carefully watch the truck in the right-hand lane toward the center of your screen. Many believe it is the main cause of the damage. At the 0:17 mark, it seems to vaporize, causing a huge fireball severely damaging rail cars on the adjacent railway. Coincidentally, all seven of them were full of fuel.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that an initial bomb damage assessment shows one lane of the road bridge to be collapsed and damage to the nearby railway track. The Russian Investigative Committee quickly surveyed the damage, and they concluded that a truck had exploded on the bridge and ignited the fuel-laden railway cars. Almost immediately, though, Russia sent divers to examine the structural integrity of the bridge supports underwater.

For the record, I do not believe the truck was what brought the bridge down. No way, and I’ll explain why.

Here we see a satellite photo of the final damage. You’ll note that the roadway between two spans has been dropped into the sea. Screenshot from YouTube and CNN

However, if the truck was the primary explosive device, we would see a hole in the middle of the road. None was evident. The structure collapsed into pieces and fell.

The bridge has dropped in multiple pieces, indicating a probable blast from below. Screenshot from YouTube and WSJ

The detonation of high explosives above the surface of the bridge, as has been claimed by the Russians, would have sent the majority of the blast force up and away from the truck. However, as noted above, that would cause a massive hole in the roadway and extensive scorching of the highway’s surface. What little we see of damage to the road’s surface is likely from the fire from the railway cars that were full of fuel. In addition, modern bridges are made to withstand accidents in the unlikely event that a truck carrying explosive cargo may ignite.

No, ladies and gentlemen, this blast came from below.

A waterborne object is picked up on a security camera immediately before the explosion. Screenshot from YouTube and WSJ.

By All Indications, an SOF Operation

Obviously, the Russians did not take out their own multi-billion dollar bridge and main supply line to a war they are currently fighting. The Ukrainians did this. But, they do not have weapons with the range to even come close to hitting the Crimea bridge from Ukraine. The HIMARS weapons systems we have provided to them could only cover a fraction of the hundreds of miles from Ukraine to the damaged bridge.

Sky News explains how the Crimea, or Kerch Bridge is a pivotal link to getting people and supplies from Russia to Crimea and through Ukraine to the Kherson region. This image also gives us an excellent idea of how far the bridge is from Ukraine. Screenshot from YouTube and Sky News

In my opinion, and you’ve probably read it here first, this was the result of a highly successful special operations forces mission. Mark my words: one day, a movie will be made about this. This operation took place deep behind enemy lines in Russian territory. Operators infiltrated the area with the highest degree of secrecy, bringing hundreds of pounds of high explosives. Whoever did was was good, very good. To say that the Russians are watching this bridge carefully would be an understatement.

I believe the explosion(s) came from under the bridge, with shaped charges likely being placed on the supporting structures. Who would have placed those explosives? Again, I can only speculate, but my money is on Ukrainian troops from the 73rd Naval Special Purpose Center. These are special forces units of the Ukrainian Naval Infantry, their version of our US Navy SEALs or British SBS. The exact details of their equipment are classified, but it is known to be highly sophisticated and comparable to what we have in the west. And keep in mind that US Special Operations Command Europe kept training the Ukrainians until the beginning of the war.

The Ukrainian 73rd has swimmer delivery vehicles (SDVs) and DPDs (diver propulsion devices) to get their combat divers where they need to be. The SDV can best be described as a mini-sub, about 22 feet long, with an electric motor and single screw propeller. High-frequency sonar and a doppler inertial navigation system get the Team and their gear where they need to be silently. They are often deployed from and may be retrieved by submarines. That’s one potential scenario for successful infiltration and exfiltration.

Unit patch from the Ukrainian 73rd Naval Special Operations Center

 

Regardless of exactly how they did it, the SOF made logistical issues for Russia in their war with Ukraine (especially in the Kherson region) much more difficult. Refer to the map above from Sky News. It shows how supplies, equipment, and troops were getting from the motherland to the Kherson region of Ukraine through annexed Crimea utilizing the 12-mile-long Crimea (Kerch) bridge. Now that they can’t do that, materiel will have to be moved by sea to the Ukrainian port cities of Berdyansk and Mariupol and trucked hundreds of miles through enemy territory to its destination.

The Russians, of course, will move to repair the bridge as quickly as possible. Still, I wager that the damage will buy the Ukrainians at least two or three weeks of valuable time where the already undersupplied Russian forces will receive very little or no support.

This is an enormous blow to the Russians, on par with the Ukrainian sinking of the Moskva. A sound tactical victory and one hell of a morale booster. “Look at what we can do,” they are telling the Kremlin, giving the middle finger directly to Putin. To his credit, Mr. Putin isn’t stupid, never said he was. Shortly after the attacks, he gave a speech stating how he views this as a terrorist attack against his country and, “The authors, perpetrators and those who ordered it are the special services of Ukraine.” As a former KGB man, he knows this and is currently doing his best to take revenge against the citizens of Ukraine because he has been made to look so bad.

My hope is that the armed forces of Ukraine will take full advantage of this situation to push Russian forces from the Kherson region. The New York Times just yesterday reported on increasingly lowered enemy morale and a general retreat from the area.

Author’s Note: Many thanks to the Wall Street Journal and their chief correspondent on the ground in Ukraine, Yaroslav Trofimov, for making the insightful YouTube video presented above. They seem to be of the same mind that we are, that this was not solely the work of a truck bomb and definitely not caused by a missile strike.

US Africa Command Special Operations Forces to Train in Benin, to Prepare for Violent Extremism Threats

Ouassa, Benin — Special Operations Command Africa forces partnered with the Beninese Army during a Joint Combined Exchange Training that concluded Sept. 9, 2022, in Ouassa, Benin. US Army Green Berets assigned to the 3rd Special Forces Group (Airborne) collaborated with the Beninese Army’s 1st Commando Parachute Battalion members to hone tactical and operational skills.

As violent extremism poses a threat to global stability, safeguarding these borders from incoming threats requires a collective multilateral effort. Engagements, including JCETs, provide mutual benefits to partner forces as they enhance partner capacity and strengthen relationships to combat regional insecurity and instability.

US Army Green Berets assigned to the 3rd Special Forces Group (Airborne) and Beninese soldiers from the 1st Commando Parachute Battalion take a knee for mission progress feedback during a Joint Combined Exercise Training (JCET) in Ouassa, Benin, Sept. 7, 2022. Our engagement is one small contribution to helping our partners safeguard their people and combat the global threat of violent extremism. (US Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Jasmonet Holmes)

The JCET program’s primary purpose is to provide partner nations with special operations units with specific training to promote security and stability in Africa. In addition, JCETs enhance US relationships with partner nations by developing and maintaining critical military-to-military connections and improving joint and allied readiness and interoperability.

A Beninese soldier from the 1st Commando Parachute Battalion renders a salute to the U.S. and Beninese Army Forces leadership during the Joint Combined Exercise Training (JCET) closing ceremony in Ouassa, Benin, Sept. 9, 2022. A closing ceremony is held at the end of every JCET iteration to celebrate the successful completion of U.S and host nation partnership, training and collaboration. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Jasmonet Holmes)

This exchange is part of a series of US engagements with the Beninese military that provides opportunities for units to work together, learn from each other, build interoperability, and strengthen relationships. This recent engagement represents the second JCET that US special operations forces conducted with Beninese forces this year. The two partner forces hosted a March JCET and participated alongside one another in previous Flintlock exercises with other allied and African partner nations. Flintlock isAfrica’se premier special operations exercisa, with 30 participating countries.

US Africa Command special operations forces demonstrate their commitment to their African partners through sustained military and civil engagements across the continent.

Check out our video coverage of US Special Forces who got ambushed in Niger:

Warning: Graphic content. 

Russians Kill Two Americans, Part of a Special Operations Force, in Ukraine’s Donbas Region

Today the US State Department has confirmed that two more American Citizens have died in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

A State Department representative reported to news outlets that they could not provide details about those killed or the circumstances of their deaths. However, they said they “are in touch with the families and providing all possible consular assistance.”

When pushed for more information, the spokesperson stated, “Out of respect to the families during this difficult time, we have nothing further to add.” What we do know, however, is that in recent days Russians have been intensifying their attacks in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Luke "Skywalker" Lucyszn was one of the Americans Killed in Action. Image Credit Kathy Lucyszyn via ABC News
Luke “Skywalker” Lucyszn was one of the Americans Killed in Action. Image Credit Kathy Lucyszyn via ABC News

SOFREP has learned, through POLITICO, the names of those killed and the situation surrounding their deaths. Killed in the fighting, along with a Canadian and Swedish citizen, were Luke “Skywalker” Lucyszn and Bryan Young. They died on July 18th alongside Emile-Antoine Roy-Sirois of Canada and Edvard Selander Patrignani of Sweden.

Their deaths were confirmed by the men’s commander, Ruslan Miroshnichenko, today, Saturday, July 23rd. According to Miroshnichenko’s Linkedin profile, we know that he is a graduate of NATO’s Civil-Military Cooperation Centre of Excellence and the NATO Senior Staff Officer’s Course.

The combatants were killed when a Russian tank opened fire on them during an extensive firefight on the frontlines in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine. They were part of a special operations force within the Territorial Defense of the Armed forces of Ukraine. Their unit had been based near the town of Siversk, which became a target of the invading Russian force. Tasked with slowing the Russian advance in the region, the men were sent to the village of Hryhorivka, roughly two miles away from Siversk.

According to Miroshnichenko, the men were tasked to take up firing positions and clear out a ravine that Russian forces were utilizing to cross a river. “They did it successfully,” he said. “But at the end of the mission they were ambushed by Russian tanks,” 

Miroshnichenko continued:

“The first shell injured Luke. Three guys, Edward, Emile, and Bryan, they immediately attempted to help Luke, to do first aid, and evacuate him from this spot. Then the second shell killed them all.”

Destruction in Donbas. At least two other American citizens have died during the war in Ukraine since it began in late February. Image Credit: SOPA Images/Light Rocket
Destruction in Donbas. At least two other American citizens have died during the war in Ukraine since it began in late February. Image Credit: SOPA Images/Light Rocket

The foreign fighters were tapped to go to the area to reinforce conventional Ukrainian troops specifically because of their specialized skill sets and experience. Their commander explained why they were there, near Hryhorivka:

“A group of professionals with relevant experience in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was created to carry out the task. Two scouts were checking the territory, they were supported by a machine gun and grenade launcher group in case of a combat encounter and the need to cover the departure of the reconnaissance group, as well as for the purpose of inflicting fire damage on the enemy.”

Heavy shelling continued on the position long after the deaths of the soldiers, and it took hours before hostilities eased up enough to have a team go in and recover the bodies.

This is a developing story, and SOFREP will provide more details as they become available.

SOF Theory: Multi-Domain Operational Design and Approach is the Future

Members of the Special Operations Forces (SOF) are entrusted with various operations, including but not limited to frontline combat and terrorist operations, the liberation of hostages, provision of humanitarian assistance, and much more. But should traditional, straight-forward force be the core of SOF? 

The United States Special Operations Command (USSCOM), with its head office located at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla., is responsible for coordinating the operations of the incredibly competent and frequently undercover organization of military soldiers who are deployed all over the world.

With its history of triumph on the battlefield, SOF has been a subject of theories about whether the forces generate the so-called “fog of war” or it ultimately conducts “military statecraft.” This leads to the theory of SOF, which crafts a functional design that works to its advantage for succeeding operations and ensures the strengthening of its forces against potential risks. 

Special Forces Soldiers from four NATO countries observe targets on a firing range at the Grafenwoehr Training Area during a Judging Distance (JD) exercise on July 24. JD exercises, a common aspect of sniper training conducted by the International Special Training Centre (ISTC), are undertaken nearly daily and provide Soldiers a better understanding of determining distance to the target with the naked eye and rifle scope. The ISTC is sponsored by the 7th Army Joint Multinational Training Command (JMTC). (Source: Staff Sgt. Gina Vaile-Nelson, 133rd MPAD, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

These objectives suggest the primary components needed by SOF to radicalize their victory through a realistic design that enforces well-equipped troops, trained, and resolutely led armies to avoid the generation of “fog of war” from their side. In addition, SOF members receive training, education, and a skill set that is unparalleled in the military, allowing them to obscure the view of the opposing commander and influence their judgment to the point where it causes “operational paralysis.”

The 19th-century Military Theorists Carl von Clausewitz wrote in his famous piece, On War:

“The great uncertainty of all data in war is a peculiar difficulty, because all action must, to a certain extent, be planned in a mere twilight, which in addition not infrequently — like the effect of a fog or moonshine — gives to things exaggerated dimensions and unnatural appearance.”

According to this concept, the fog of war is thought to be caused by special operations forces carrying out missions and operations outside the purview of the public eye. 

Multi-Domain Operational Design and Approach

Tech. Sgt. Brandon Tatum, Air Warfare Center chief of joint terminal attack control training, works with Pakistan commandos to locate and coordinate various targets of opportunity during a training scenario at a Pakistan military range, March 1, 2022. The partner nation training was part of Falcon Talon 2022, an Agile Combat Employment operation and the first bilateral training event between the U.S. and Pakistan since 2019. (Source: Capt. Monique Roux, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

Multi-Domain Operational Design and Approach

The Multi-Domain Operational Design and Approach focuses on three facets: Offensive Action, Support, and Financial Disruption. These are aimed at influencing the leadership and the forces accompanying it. The population from whom the enemy pulls its troops, whether by force or choice, is called the host population. They provide the financial and economic resources necessary to maintain the military.

Offensive action:

The enemy should be considered the centric Line of Operation or Effort in which human and technical assets, resources, and sources are employed to “exploit” the enemy’s location, organization, plans, and TTPs (tactics, techniques, and procedures). Offensive action uses available forces, not simply conventional military operations (Military, Governmental, and Commercial). So, theoretically, SOF planners and strategists should not limit Offensive Actions to military activities only. Ultimately, the purpose is to paralyze the enemy’s decision-making.

Support:

The active and passive supporters who give recruitment and resources are impacted by actions and efforts to erode the enemy’s faith and convert them towards neutrality.

This can be done by keeping the population, protecting civilians, creating economic opportunities, developing or repairing facilities, and assuring partner troops respect their populace.

This strategy contradicts the conventional understanding of the military’s role in society because it depends more on “soft power” than “hard power.” Statecraft is more applicable to special operations forces experts and operator dynamics than conventional warfare is, but modern warfare requires unconventional thinking and approach.

Lastly, financial disruption:

This concept elucidates the enemy’s survival ability through exodus, international donations, and state funding. Friendly nations and the Partner Nation must develop and implement this technique so the enemy cannot restore captured or damaged equipment and sustain military and propaganda activities.

Even while Special Operations Forces are working to improve partner capacity and train, advise, assist, and accompany operations, we must understand that these lines of operations need to be carried out as quickly and efficiently as possible. SOF’s effectiveness in its approach should be grounded on stable financial backing.

Getting Started with Multi-domain Ops

SOF Theory: Table created by Michael B. “Bulldog” Kelley and Greg E. Metzgar (Source: Smallwarsjournal)

The first thing that needs to be done to carry out Special Operations Forces Operational Design successfully is to concentrate on the intel and information that genuinely articulates the Operational Environment and the method of Joint Planning. 

The SOF planner is responsible for comprehending and accurately determining the “Centers of Gravity.” As argued in the report, deciding where the enemy’s center of gravity is critical.

The approach also notes that in today’s conflicts, special operations forces often find themselves pitted against an adversary whose tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) are designed not to monopolize “key terrain” or to overpower and kill the enemy in large-scale conventional maneuvers,” but rather to decimate and bring down the “pillars of the state” to achieve a decisive win. 

Therefore, the terrain comprises the people, which includes both passive and active supporters, and the rural or urban ground over which it travels and operates. Ultimately, SOFs should be given access to information and intelligence as well as recruits and weapons, but most importantly, they need finance.

Russia’s Trump Card: Is Wagner’s African Playbook Running in Ukraine?

As the war in Ukraine continues, there is increased scrutiny of the Russian government’s global activities. In Africa, the newest development uses Russian mercenaries, most prominently the Wagner group, to achieve Russian interests. Even if the mercenaries are not particularly effective at defeating rebel groups, their appeal to African leaders and ability to implant themselves into the host country’s political system makes them difficult for the international community to counter. 

Using mercenaries offers the Russian state several benefits. Firstly, it allows Moscow’s most controversial activity in Africa to remain deniable, even if Wagner’s connections to the Kremlin are common knowledge and Wagner’s deployments are preceded by a deal with the Russian government. It also allows Russia more access to gold, diamonds, and other precious resources, which are suitable for the economy and a small way to mitigate the impact of Ukraine-related sanctions. Furthermore, because Wagner’s ability to operate depends on its link to the Kremlin and the Russian state’s willingness to overlook the constitutional ban on mercenaries, there is almost no risk that Wagner will operate against Moscow’s interests. Lastly, When Wagner mercenaries die, which is not infrequent, Russia owes the public no explanation.

The largest Wagner Group telegram channel posted this image (left) of their contractors posing with a sledgehammer in Kherson Oblast [Source: Twitter/@GuinieZoo_Intel]
Wagner initially fought for Russian interests in Eastern Ukraine and Syria but quickly secured contracts in Africa supporting then-President Omar Al-Bashir in Sudan and Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar. However, in the Central African Republic and now Mali, they developed their playbook of opportunistically exploiting ill-will towards France and the E.U. to secure lasting contracts and political influence.

The Wagner Playbook in Africa: The Central African Republic and Beyond

Wagner’s appeal to some African leaders is simple. They offer to train the military, act like a praetorian guard, and conduct counterinsurgency operations at a relatively low cost. The deal is incredibly enticing if a state or its people are unsatisfied with its current security assistance. Former French colonies, particularly those with an ongoing conflict and French military presence, are especially susceptible. The Central African Republic, for instance, relied on French, EU, and U.N. missions as their primary security partners from 2014 until 2018. Then, as it became clear that peacekeepers and French forces were unable or unwilling to stem the violence or defeat CAR’s many rebel groups, President Touadera reached out to Russia. Alongside a shipment of weapons, some 170 mercenaries arrived under several names, including Sewa Security Services and COSI.  

https://twitter.com/banko416/status/1544638366049763328

Wagner’s presence jumped dramatically in response to a rebel offensive on the capital. Rebel coalitions overthrew the government multiple times in CAR, making the newest effort, led by a former President, an existential threat to President Touadera and Russian interests. Reinforcing over 2,000 personnel, Wagner halted the rebel advance and launched a counterattack that reconquered massive territory in a few months. 

Wagner also offers a few ways to pay for its services. The traditional way to pay mercenaries costs thousands of dollars per mercenary per month. Some countries, like the Central African Republic, offered Wagner access to resources such as gold and diamonds. 

Engagement with Wagner also comes with a constellation of other companies linked to the same group of Oligarchs, most notably Putin associate Yevgeny Prigozhin. The oligarch’s companies range from security, such as Wagner and Sewa Security Services, to mining and resource extraction, such as M-Invest. Wagner protects resource extraction sites, such as in Sudan, and secures mines to bring Russian mining interests or extort the miners and seize the resources. There are also media and disinformation efforts, such as Prigozhin’s infamous “troll farm.” Wagner produced a trilogy of films about itself, the first of which Touriste was shot in the Central African Republic and screened to the Central African audiences in the capital city, Bangui.  

Once Wagner is in the country, the results on the ground are more mixed than the sales pitch. They can be effective in a conventional fight against lightly amred rebel groups, as demonstrated by their counteroffensive in the Central African Republic, but they struggle to win counterinsurgencies. In Mozambique, Wagner took severe losses against Islamist militants in Cabo Delgado, and their relations with the Mozambican government deteriorated to the point of ending the mission. 

In terms of public relations and international image, employing Wagner undermines goodwill towards African leaders. Wagner is almost always too heavy-handed in its operations, leading to systematic abuses against civilians in pursuit of rebels. Worse still, they encourage the local security forces they accompany to do the same. U.N. reports from the Central African Republic found that Wagner and the Central African Armed Forces (FACA) were responsible for nearly half of all confirmed instances of abuse. 

Wagner and Russia use the international isolation of their host states to increase their influence. The President of the Central African Republic has a Russian national security advisor, mandated teaching Russian in schools, and now seeks to make Russian an official language, along with a raft of changes allowing him to run for a third term. More importantly, CAR appears no closer to peace as fighting continues, and Wagner-led FACA forces create more grievances for people in central and eastern CAR than they solve. Wagner’s ability to personally protect the President means that his fortunes can rise even if his country falls. Russia supported anti-French protests and fund some civil society figures, accompanied by legitimate anger at France for its decades of paternalistic policies in Africa, ensure that there will be some level of support in Capital cities independent of the performance of presidents and juntas as heads of state. 

Wagner in Mali, The Newest Mission

Mali, Wagner’s newest mission in Africa, follows the same playbook as the Central African Republic. Mali’s years-long conflict against rebels and Al-Qaeda and ISIS-affiliated extremist groups led to French intervention, an E.U. training mission and task force, and one of the U.N.’s largest current peacekeeping missions. After a series of coups in 2020 and 2021, the governing junta decided to close the airspace over Mali and expel the French mission. In September 2021, press reports revealed that the committee was negotiating with Russia to send Wagner forces to help fight extremists.

Wagner and Russia played on the Malian government’s dissatisfaction with France’s inability to restore order and the post-coup junta’s poor relationship with the international community to push anti-French propaganda and promise results in exchange for monthly payments and access to resources in the Southwest of the country. Like CAR, the mission has grown in scope, pushed the junta away from its traditional security partners, and now wields significant influence. 

Wagner has already engaged in severe human rights abuses in Mali. U.N. reports note a 300% increase in civilian deaths compared to prior years, a disproportionate number committed by security forces. The numbers are likely higher since Wagner, and the Malian government refuses to cooperate with U.N. investigations. The prime example is the town of Moura, where the Wagner and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) likely killed 300-600 people while “liberating” it from extremists. According to eyewitness accounts, Wagner and FAMA detained, interrogated, and executed most men in the town, regardless of affiliation with extremists. Malian authorities refused to allow the U.N. to investigate with support from Russia in the U.N. Security Council. They even detained investigators when they approached the town.

The E.U.’s Plan to Counter Wagner

Several countries are looking for ways to contain and degrade Wagner’s operations in Africa. The U.S. Department of Treasury and its European counterparts have Prighozhin and other associates under sanctions. In addition, Wagner will likely feature prominently in the Countering Malign Russian Activities Act, which passed the House of Representatives and awaits approval. The U.K. Foreign Affairs Committee has also launched an investigation into Russian mercenaries. 

While most anti-Wagner efforts are nascent at the national level, a recently leaked E.U. report from the European External Action Service (EEAS) proposes taking ambitious steps to contain Russian mercenaries. According to the EEAS, Wagner’s activities in Mali forced the E.U. to suspend its training mission, leading to the erosion of democratic principles and worse humanitarian outcomes. The EEAS wants to launch three missions in West Africa and the Gulf of Guinea that go beyond the typical E.U. training mission. These missions would be trained, equipped, accompanied, and virtually guaranteed that E.U. soldiers would enter combat. 

Without overwhelming support from its member states, the E.U.’s plan is dead on arrival. Brussels is betting that improving its reliability as a security partner and making some efforts to counter Russian disinformation will prevent other West African nations, particularly Burkina Faso and Niger, who face the same security environment as Mali and are reportedly next on the Wagner hit list. However, the obstacles to implementing the plan are likely insurmountable for the E.U. in the near term. 

For all the talk of launching a broad effort across West Africa, doing so actually requires the countries in West Africa to be on board. Niger and Burkina Faso requested E.U. support, but only for logistical support. While they may be interested in an E.U. training, equipping, and accompanying the mission, overstepping their request dramatically might undermine public confidence in their governance and appear to have less sovereignty over their affairs. 

It is also unclear if there is sufficient appetite for the E.U. member states to contribute troops for three additional missions with a more aggressive mandate. In terms of deployments, smaller countries might be squeamish about large implementations. The E.U. might be worried that deploying former colonial powers like France would make the missions susceptible to the same kind of Russian propaganda they seek to counter. Most democracies are casualty-averse, meaning that any significant reversal could compromise participation. Lastly, with Europe’s newfound concern for Russia comes a desire to keep within their borders or contribute to NATO’s frontier with Russia. 

It’s always possible that the E.U. and other efforts contain the group, but generally, Wagner is defeated by its host government. For example, the Mozambican government ended Wagner’s mission following its poor performance, not an E.U. mission in a neighboring country. Moreover, detaching Wagner will be tough without sustained diplomatic and political pressure for those increasingly relying on Wagner to prop up the regime and personalize control over the state, such as CAR and Mali. 

This is a user-submitted piece by Marcel Plichta. Marcel Plichta is a Ph.D. Candidate in International Relations at the University of St Andrews and a former intelligence analyst for the U.S. Department of Defense. He has written on African security issues for Newsweek, Defense One, and World Politics Review. All views are his own.

Want your analysis published here in SOFREP? Send your pitch to our editorial team at [email protected].

Senior ISIS Leader Captured in Syria by US-Coalition Forces

A force made up of US and coalition forces has reportedly captured a man that is believed to be a senior leader of the Islamic State (ISIS) during a ground raid in northwestern Syria sometime between late Wednesday and early Thursday.

The statement issued by the Coalition forces claimed that the senior ISIS leader was an expert bomb maker and was one of the top leaders of ISIS in the terrorist group’s base in Syria. However, the officials announcing the capture did not clarify any further details about the individual, including the ISIS leader’s name and where the raid occurred. No civilians were reportedly harmed or killed during the raid.

However, a US official has told ABC News that the name of this ISIS leader was “Hani Ahmed al-Kurdi” and that he was an active senior member who planned ISIS operations. Al-Kurdi has since been named by other media outlets as the ISIS leader captured.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported that two helicopters landed near the village of al-Humaira, some 2.5 miles from the Turkish border, where gunshots were exchanged in northern Aleppo. However, we cannot confirm these details at this time.

“Coalition forces detained a senior Daesh leader during an operation in Syria June 16,” Operation Inherent Resolve stated through a release on their website. “The detained individual was assessed to be an experienced bomb maker and facilitator who became one of the group’s top leaders in Syria.”

“The mission was meticulously planned to minimize the risk of collateral damage, particularly any potential harm to civilians. There were no civilians harmed during the operation nor any damage to Coalition aircraft or assets,” they explained.

“Coalition forces will continue to hunt the remnants of Daesh wherever they hide to ensure their enduring defeat.”

The statement refers to ISIS as “Daesh.” As you may have noticed, throughout the years, the media has called this terrorist group many names, including “Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant,” otherwise known as “ISIL” and the “Islamic State” or simply “IS.” Do not be confused, as they all refer to the same terrorist group.

The term “Daesh” is an Arabic acronym formed from the terrorist group’s previous name in Arabic, “al-Dawla al-Islamiya fil Iraq wa al-Sham.” People in the Middle East started calling them that as it sounded unpleasant and sounded similar to an Arabic verb that means “to trample” or “to crush.”

Commander of U.S. Central Command, U.S. Army Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, delivers remarks after assuming command from U.S. Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., Tampa, Florida, April 1, 2022. (DoD photo by Lisa Ferdinando). Source: https://www.dvidshub.net/image/7122281/new-centcom-commander-delivers-remarks
Commander of US Central Command, US Army Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, delivers remarks after assuming command from U.S. Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., Tampa, Florida, April 1, 2022. (DoD photo by Lisa Ferdinando/DVIDS)

Going back to the US raid in Syria, Commander of the US Central Command Gen. Erik Kurilla stated to the news outlet that ISIS had already degraded throughout the years but still remained a legitimate threat. “We remain dedicated to its defeat. Last night’s operation, which took a senior ISIS operator off the battlefield, demonstrates our commitment to the security of the Middle East and to the enduring defeat of ISIS,” he said to ABC News.

“This operation in northeast Syria demonstrates our commitment to the security of the region and to the enduring defeat of ISIS,” Kurilla added.

Interestingly, two Russian Su-34 fighter jets appeared near the area where the raid occurred. No further details were revealed regarding these planes and what they were doing in the area. However, an unnamed US official said that two American F-16 fighter jets responded when they had detected the two Russian jets. This is highly unusual as Russia and the US, despite their degrading diplomatic relations, coordinate with each other so that they do not accidentally attack each other while conducting operations.

US-led ground forces operations are increasingly rare in northwestern Syria as it is considered diplomatically risky to do so. Furthermore, it is very far from US bases in eastern Syria, which may risk tensions with the Syrian Government.

As Kurilla has said, ISIS had been degraded with its ability to carry out terrorist attacks as it was soundly defeated in 2019. Many also say that ISIS was not defeated but only incapacitated for the meanwhile and was rebuilding its power, which is why the US and anti-ISIS groups keep tabs on the terrorist group and strike when necessary to keep their leadership cut and morale low.

Former Islamic State leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi's hideout, destroyed by his own explosives (Bllomberg Quicktake). Source: https://twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1489234877547491334
Former Islamic State leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi’s hideout was destroyed by his own explosives (Bloomberg Quicktake/Twitter)

For the most part, ISIS has been notably active in some insurgencies in Iraq and Syria, helping inspire radicals in the West and Southeast Asia to conduct terrorist attacks, some on their behalf and some just heavily inspired.

Last February, US Special Forces under the US Central Command conducted a raid to kill ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi in Idlib, northwestern Syria. With US forces closing in on his home (or hideout), Al-Qurayshi blew himself up along with those inside the house.

His successor Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi (or al-Quarayshi) was arrested last May in Turkey. According to the Turkish authorities, al-Qurashi was captured after intensive police surveillance and intel gathering. The arrest was made without firing a single bullet.

Congressman Greg Murphy Adds to Calls That Charges be Dropped Against MARSOC-3

Congressman Gregory Murphy is the latest member of Congress to add his voice to those calling for an end to the prosecution of the MARSOC-3, two Marine Raiders, and a Navy Corpsman who stood accused of the murder of a civilian contractor and former Green Beret following an altercation in 2018 outside a bar in Irbil Kurdistan. Congressman Murphy represents the Congressional district in North Carolina where Camp Lejune and Marine Forces Special Operations Command are located.

On February 17th, SOFREP reported that all charges had been dropped against Navy Corpsman, Chief Petty Officer Eric Gilmet after the presiding judge found that a senior Judge Advocate in the Navy’s JAG office had exerted undue command influence over Gilmet’s assigned lawyer, threatening his career for representing Gilmet.

Charges for the remaining two Marine Raiders, Gunnery Sgt. Joshua Negron, and Gunnery Sgt. Daniel Draher is still pending.  Both are facing prison sentences of up to 22 years and dishonorable discharges.

Congressman Greg Murphy visiting Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City. Courtesy of Rep. Murphy’s office

SOFREP reached out to Congressman Murphy’s office for a statement about the letter he send today to General Glynn, and this was his reply.

“After reviewing the details of the case, it is clear that the evidence in this case simply does not meet the charges against these elite USMC special forces operators. 
We know that all three MARSOC Raiders participated in a single necessary act of self-defense, yet these brave service members, who attempted to avoid conflict, have become a scapegoat for a political agenda. 
For over a year, my team and I have been working to bring justice to these gentlemen and make this right. I’m grateful that following my letter last year to the Secretary of Defense, Chief Petty Officer Eric Gilmet’s charges were dropped. Today I am once again calling on Major General Glynn to review this case and ultimately drop the remaining charges against Marine Gunnery Sergeant Daniel Draher and Marine Gunnery Sergeant Joshua Negron.
I will continue working with my colleagues on the Congressional Justice for Warriors Caucus on this and other military justice issues to make sure our service members are treated justly and fairly under the law. “
Critics of the charges brought against the Sailor and the two Marines believe that the prosecution is driven by political motives.  There have been numerous reports of active-duty members of the Special Operations community accused of various crimes including drug and weapons trafficking, murder, rape, and other serious offenses.  These critics accuse the Department of Defence of taking a hammer on these service members in a tragic accident that should not have ever resulted in charges because of the evidence and mitigating circumstances of the case.
Last week Congressman Brian Mast send a similar letter of inquiry to General Glyna and the Department of Defense leadership also asking for the charges to be dropped. SOFREP covered that here.

Congressman Murphy’s letter today to Major General Glynn which was also copied to Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro Marine Commandant General David Berger, and USSOCOM Commander General David Clark is published below in its entirety.

April 4, 2022

Dear General Glynn,

 I write to you today to show my support for the two Marine Raiders who are still under pending legal charges involving what appears to be unlawful command influence.  As you know, Chief Petty Officer Eric Gilmet’s charges have already been dropped.  I was very happy to see this decision after writing a letter to the Secretary of Defense last year on Chief Gilmet’s behalf.

 Congressman Mast has written a previous letter where he reviewed the video evidence that clearly shows that these Marines acted in self-defense against an aggressor who escalated the situation by seeking and initiating a violent confrontation.  Tragically, the contractor passed away later, but it appears that the actions of these Marines were fully justified, per the video of this incident.

 What is greatly concerning is the Marine Corps’ actions, in this case, especially the unlawful command influence directed at the legal representatives of these men.  As you know, these charges were not filed until 10 months after this tragic situation occurred.  The prior Commander of Marine Forces Special Operations Command took a very hard line despite clear evidence showing it was not warranted, filing the most charges granted to him under the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ). 

 It appears the command climate at the time was to crack down on any special operators’ actions that could potentially be deemed as damaging the special operations community’s reputation for maintaining exceptional order and discipline.  The decision to prosecute these three Raiders occurred after several incidents involving alleged bad conduct by special operations military members were highlighted by the media.

 As you well know, due to incredibly bad actions by the Marine Corps Staff Judge Advocate staff, all charges were recently dropped against Chief Petty Officer Eric Gilmet.  This decision was made by the Marine Corps leadership after one of the Marine Corps’ lawyers was shown to have committed unlawful command influence in this case. 

 So, sir, you can see there is a pattern of highly unprofessional and unlawful conduct being committed in this case.  Therefore, I implore you to review this case very carefully, taking into consideration the deplorable conduct of the Marines who have prosecuted this case.

 I am confident you will decide that is just, and hope that you ensure that patriotic Americans who have served this nation with honor and integrity—and in this case acted purely in self-defense—are not needlessly prosecuted.

Very Respectfully,

Gregory F. Murphy, M.D.

Member of Congress    

If you are not up to speed on this case which dates back to 2018, you can read more of our extensive coverage here:

The Al-Qurayshi Raid In Syria, What We Know So Far

The planning for this raid would have begun months ago, most likely involving signal intelligence, a fancy word for tracking the target’s use of cell phones by him or known associates.  From there the noose would tighten in terms of his exact location.  Once that was worked out to a reasonable approximation, assets on the ground would then do the leg work of surveilling the location to assure the target was present there.

The intelligence gathered would include knowing how many persons lived there, their comings and goings and who visited the compound and where they went afterward.   Photos and video from every angle would be taken and operatives would even go as far as walking past the building or attempting some ruse to gain entry to determine the layout, like a city worker checking for a gas leak or other inspection of some kind.

ISIS leaders know the U.S. is looking for them so they go to great lengths to keep their locations concealed, like bin Laden did, they often take up residence in plain sight hoping to blend in with the local population.  Theirs is an existence not unlike being in a prison of their own making, living in near-complete isolation from the outside world.  Al-Qurayshi was said to never leave the inside of his residence on the third floor except to bathe.

From there, a model would be built of the compound including the surrounding buildings in several scales to plan the method of approach and assault.  A realistic mockup in full size would also be made to allow the operators to practice assaulting the building over and over until they know its layout is cold.

Current reports state the attack began at approximately 0100hrs with the arrival of some 50 helicopters(We don’t believe this number is accurate at all, there aren’t that many in the theater) from a base said to be in the region.  Since the location of the village is only about 20 minutes from the border with Turkey and the administration stated that it deconflicted with several nations before the raid we imagine the raid may have begun from Turkey, or U.S. forces egressed to Turkey after the raid or perhaps both.

Before the raid witnesses claim to have heard a loudspeaker telling inhabitants of the target house to evacuate any women or children and surrender.  Witnesses stated that a family exited from the ground floor. Upon landing the raiding force engaged in what was said to be an hours-long gun battle with those inside the second and third stories and with members of a militant group that heard the battle and tried to intervene in some manner with two of them being killed.

The DoD claims that during the fight, Al-Qurayshi detonated an explosive vest or belt inside the third story killing himself and his wife and two children. Photos taken by a photographer for Getty of the building itself seem to support these claims as the debris is blown outward, the lower floors are not collapsed and there is an apparent lack of fire damage that would accompany a strike by a missile or bomb from an aircraft.

(Photo by Izzeddin Kasim/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

During the raid, one of the helicopters suffered a mechanical malfunction and was diverted to a landing area safely. It was destroyed on the ground by the raiding force.  Pictures of the destroyed aircraft identify it as a UH-60 Blackhawk in common use and not the kind of special helicopter used in the Bin Laden raid in Pakistan.

Generally, raids like these do not last two to three hours, but the downed helicopter would have added to this time.

About 150 yards from the main house was a garage building that was hosed down with a heavy weapon of 30mm caliber by our estimation.  This suggests the presence of at least one Apache attack helicopter.  This building may have contained vehicles that the targets might have used to escape in. They appear to have entered the aluminum rolling doors of the building at a flat angle which points away from them being fired by an Ac-130H gunship orbiting over the raiding force.

 

We looked at Flight Tracker and found what appears to be the air support for the raid. We believe the tracks show a least one drone in orbit over the area and perhaps four F-16s flying close air support for the mission.  They are stacked between 20,000 and 22,000 feet.

Speculation abounds over which Special Operations Unit conducted the raid or whether it was done by an elite unit belonging to a foreign country like Iraq’s CTF or the Jordanians.  We believe that if any coalition forces had been part of the raid President Biden would have given them due credit in his announcement.  SEAL Team Six is unlikely because they generally operated in Afghanistan while CAG or Delta Force has Syria as their bowl of falafel when it comes to special operations directed at high-value targets. Given the location of the raid and a few other markers, we estimate that CAG or Delta Force conducted this very successful raid.

The fact that this raid occurred in a country wracked by civil war with various Islamist militant groups all vying for control and the urban environment that the raid took place in, killing the target without any fatalities reflects very highly on the people who planned and executed the mission.

Well done.