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Ukraine

Expert Analysis: What Really Caused The Crimea Bridge to Come Down

The Only Physical Link Between Crimea and Russia

In 2014 Vladimir Putin’s government illegally annexed Crimea as part of Russia. By 2018 he had built the longest bridge in Europe to physically connect the two land masses. This was a solid symbol of Russian domination. A $3.7 billion USD symbol. To make matters even clearer, Putin personally drove one of the first trucks over the structure the day it was opened. It’s like a dog peeing on something to claim ownership.

The bridge, of course, is of enormous practical importance. It plays a critical role in getting supplies from Russia, through Crimea, to Russian troops fighting in the Kherson region of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to buckle up to drive one of the first trucks across the Crimean Bridge in 2018. Screenshot from YouTube and Wall Street Journal

On October 8th, at about 0600 local time, an enormous explosion severely damaged the Crimea (or, as it is sometimes called, Kerch) Bridge. Because of its strategic importance, the bridge is one of the most secure structures in the world. Security cameras cover almost every inch.

Please watch the footage below made available through Twitter and Russian Media Monitor. Carefully watch the truck in the right-hand lane toward the center of your screen. Many believe it is the main cause of the damage. At the 0:17 mark, it seems to vaporize, causing a huge fireball severely damaging rail cars on the adjacent railway. Coincidentally, all seven of them were full of fuel.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that an initial bomb damage assessment shows one lane of the road bridge to be collapsed and damage to the nearby railway track. The Russian Investigative Committee quickly surveyed the damage, and they concluded that a truck had exploded on the bridge and ignited the fuel-laden railway cars. Almost immediately, though, Russia sent divers to examine the structural integrity of the bridge supports underwater.

For the record, I do not believe the truck was what brought the bridge down. No way, and I’ll explain why.

Here we see a satellite photo of the final damage. You’ll note that the roadway between two spans has been dropped into the sea. Screenshot from YouTube and CNN

However, if the truck was the primary explosive device, we would see a hole in the middle of the road. None was evident. The structure collapsed into pieces and fell.

The bridge has dropped in multiple pieces, indicating a probable blast from below. Screenshot from YouTube and WSJ

The detonation of high explosives above the surface of the bridge, as has been claimed by the Russians, would have sent the majority of the blast force up and away from the truck. However, as noted above, that would cause a massive hole in the roadway and extensive scorching of the highway’s surface. What little we see of damage to the road’s surface is likely from the fire from the railway cars that were full of fuel. In addition, modern bridges are made to withstand accidents in the unlikely event that a truck carrying explosive cargo may ignite.

No, ladies and gentlemen, this blast came from below.

A waterborne object is picked up on a security camera immediately before the explosion. Screenshot from YouTube and WSJ.

By All Indications, an SOF Operation

Obviously, the Russians did not take out their own multi-billion dollar bridge and main supply line to a war they are currently fighting. The Ukrainians did this. But, they do not have weapons with the range to even come close to hitting the Crimea bridge from Ukraine. The HIMARS weapons systems we have provided to them could only cover a fraction of the hundreds of miles from Ukraine to the damaged bridge.

Sky News explains how the Crimea, or Kerch Bridge is a pivotal link to getting people and supplies from Russia to Crimea and through Ukraine to the Kherson region. This image also gives us an excellent idea of how far the bridge is from Ukraine. Screenshot from YouTube and Sky News

In my opinion, and you’ve probably read it here first, this was the result of a highly successful special operations forces mission. Mark my words: one day, a movie will be made about this. This operation took place deep behind enemy lines in Russian territory. Operators infiltrated the area with the highest degree of secrecy, bringing hundreds of pounds of high explosives. Whoever did was was good, very good. To say that the Russians are watching this bridge carefully would be an understatement.

I believe the explosion(s) came from under the bridge, with shaped charges likely being placed on the supporting structures. Who would have placed those explosives? Again, I can only speculate, but my money is on Ukrainian troops from the 73rd Naval Special Purpose Center. These are special forces units of the Ukrainian Naval Infantry, their version of our US Navy SEALs or British SBS. The exact details of their equipment are classified, but it is known to be highly sophisticated and comparable to what we have in the west. And keep in mind that US Special Operations Command Europe kept training the Ukrainians until the beginning of the war.

The Ukrainian 73rd has swimmer delivery vehicles (SDVs) and DPDs (diver propulsion devices) to get their combat divers where they need to be. The SDV can best be described as a mini-sub, about 22 feet long, with an electric motor and single screw propeller. High-frequency sonar and a doppler inertial navigation system get the Team and their gear where they need to be silently. They are often deployed from and may be retrieved by submarines. That’s one potential scenario for successful infiltration and exfiltration.

Unit patch from the Ukrainian 73rd Naval Special Operations Center

 

Regardless of exactly how they did it, the SOF made logistical issues for Russia in their war with Ukraine (especially in the Kherson region) much more difficult. Refer to the map above from Sky News. It shows how supplies, equipment, and troops were getting from the motherland to the Kherson region of Ukraine through annexed Crimea utilizing the 12-mile-long Crimea (Kerch) bridge. Now that they can’t do that, materiel will have to be moved by sea to the Ukrainian port cities of Berdyansk and Mariupol and trucked hundreds of miles through enemy territory to its destination.

The Russians, of course, will move to repair the bridge as quickly as possible. Still, I wager that the damage will buy the Ukrainians at least two or three weeks of valuable time where the already undersupplied Russian forces will receive very little or no support.

This is an enormous blow to the Russians, on par with the Ukrainian sinking of the Moskva. A sound tactical victory and one hell of a morale booster. “Look at what we can do,” they are telling the Kremlin, giving the middle finger directly to Putin. To his credit, Mr. Putin isn’t stupid, never said he was. Shortly after the attacks, he gave a speech stating how he views this as a terrorist attack against his country and, “The authors, perpetrators and those who ordered it are the special services of Ukraine.” As a former KGB man, he knows this and is currently doing his best to take revenge against the citizens of Ukraine because he has been made to look so bad.

My hope is that the armed forces of Ukraine will take full advantage of this situation to push Russian forces from the Kherson region. The New York Times just yesterday reported on increasingly lowered enemy morale and a general retreat from the area.

Author’s Note: Many thanks to the Wall Street Journal and their chief correspondent on the ground in Ukraine, Yaroslav Trofimov, for making the insightful YouTube video presented above. They seem to be of the same mind that we are, that this was not solely the work of a truck bomb and definitely not caused by a missile strike.

Russians Kill Two Americans, Part of a Special Operations Force, in Ukraine’s Donbas Region

Today the US State Department has confirmed that two more American Citizens have died in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

A State Department representative reported to news outlets that they could not provide details about those killed or the circumstances of their deaths. However, they said they “are in touch with the families and providing all possible consular assistance.”

When pushed for more information, the spokesperson stated, “Out of respect to the families during this difficult time, we have nothing further to add.” What we do know, however, is that in recent days Russians have been intensifying their attacks in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Luke "Skywalker" Lucyszn was one of the Americans Killed in Action. Image Credit Kathy Lucyszyn via ABC News
Luke “Skywalker” Lucyszn was one of the Americans Killed in Action. Image Credit Kathy Lucyszyn via ABC News

SOFREP has learned, through POLITICO, the names of those killed and the situation surrounding their deaths. Killed in the fighting, along with a Canadian and Swedish citizen, were Luke “Skywalker” Lucyszn and Bryan Young. They died on July 18th alongside Emile-Antoine Roy-Sirois of Canada and Edvard Selander Patrignani of Sweden.

Their deaths were confirmed by the men’s commander, Ruslan Miroshnichenko, today, Saturday, July 23rd. According to Miroshnichenko’s Linkedin profile, we know that he is a graduate of NATO’s Civil-Military Cooperation Centre of Excellence and the NATO Senior Staff Officer’s Course.

The combatants were killed when a Russian tank opened fire on them during an extensive firefight on the frontlines in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine. They were part of a special operations force within the Territorial Defense of the Armed forces of Ukraine. Their unit had been based near the town of Siversk, which became a target of the invading Russian force. Tasked with slowing the Russian advance in the region, the men were sent to the village of Hryhorivka, roughly two miles away from Siversk.

According to Miroshnichenko, the men were tasked to take up firing positions and clear out a ravine that Russian forces were utilizing to cross a river. “They did it successfully,” he said. “But at the end of the mission they were ambushed by Russian tanks,” 

Miroshnichenko continued:

“The first shell injured Luke. Three guys, Edward, Emile, and Bryan, they immediately attempted to help Luke, to do first aid, and evacuate him from this spot. Then the second shell killed them all.”

Destruction in Donbas. At least two other American citizens have died during the war in Ukraine since it began in late February. Image Credit: SOPA Images/Light Rocket
Destruction in Donbas. At least two other American citizens have died during the war in Ukraine since it began in late February. Image Credit: SOPA Images/Light Rocket

The foreign fighters were tapped to go to the area to reinforce conventional Ukrainian troops specifically because of their specialized skill sets and experience. Their commander explained why they were there, near Hryhorivka:

“A group of professionals with relevant experience in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was created to carry out the task. Two scouts were checking the territory, they were supported by a machine gun and grenade launcher group in case of a combat encounter and the need to cover the departure of the reconnaissance group, as well as for the purpose of inflicting fire damage on the enemy.”

Heavy shelling continued on the position long after the deaths of the soldiers, and it took hours before hostilities eased up enough to have a team go in and recover the bodies.

This is a developing story, and SOFREP will provide more details as they become available.

US Exclusive: SOFREP Interviews ROK/US Navy SEAL Ken Rhee About His Recent Deployment to Ukraine

I think if I had to do it all over again and I got to choose, I’d be Ken Rhee.

He pretty much checks all of the boxes for being a 21st-century badass superhero, except being able to take flight under his own power. And rumor is, he’s working on that one.

Rhee in Ukraine taking a brief break in the action for a photo op. Photo courtesy of Ken Rhee

While preparing for my interview with Ken, I quickly discovered that he’s a massive celebrity in South Korea, where he was born. His YouTube channel, ROKSEAL, has almost 800 thousand followers. In a recent interview with Korea Now, the host described him as “The most famous personality in South Korea.” Damn, I thought, “Who is this guy, and what has he done?”

I was asked to interview him because he recently returned from a deployment to Ukraine with the International Legion.

This is a screenshot from an age-restricted YouTube video. If I had posted the actual video, all you would have seen is a big gray block with the word “age-restricted” on it. I’ll add the link below. Ken is on the left, and his buddy driving the car has a head laceration (don’t worry, it was superficial, he’s fine). They are leaving a building in Ukraine where they were taking accurate artillery fire. Video courtesy of YouTube and ROKSEAL.

If you haven’t already heard of Ken Rhee, I figured I’d start your introduction to him the same way I received mine; through this YouTube video. Go watch the first couple of minutes of it; I’ll wait. Oh, just so you know, it contains some blood and NSFW language; viewer beware. Ken would later tell me that’s the closest he’s been to dying. It was one of those situations where if you were over by where you were taking a piss two minutes ago, you’d be dead now. This footage seems to be straight out of an action movie, but I assure you, it’s quite real. To add to the drama and suspense, their vehicle (obviously not military) broke down while they were under small arms fire. Such was the experience of LT Ken Rhee fighting with the International Legion in Ukraine.

But I’ve gotten ahead of myself. Let’s start at the beginning.

Ken was born in South Korea and came to the United States at an early age, where he attended school up to and including graduating from the Virginia Military Institute (VMI). He found out during his application to the US Naval Academy that he was not a US citizen. Can you imagine that? One day finding out suddenly that you were not the American you always considered yourself to be? His parents explained to him that since he was born in South Korea and they had never applied for US citizenship for him, he was South Korean.

“Fine,” he thought. He had always wanted to join the Navy; now, he’d be joining the South Korean (the Republic of Korea, or ROK) Navy. In 2007 he did just that, was commissioned as an officer, and became a ROK Navy SEAL. After multiple deployments for the ROK, he had the opportunity to attend BUD/S in the US Navy, where he was a member of class 294. Following BUD/S, he attended SQT and was awarded his trident. To my knowledge, he’s the only man to have ever completed both grueling SEAL programs. A true international badass.

I hope you enjoy reading the SOFREP interview with LT Rhee as much as I did talking with him.

Rhee and his team in Ukraine. Image Credit: LT Ken Rhee

SOFREP: Some of our readers watched your latest video where you were in Ukraine, and the driver of your vehicle had a nasty-looking head laceration. 

LT Rhee: Yeah, he cracked his head open pretty good.

SOFREP: Was he alright?

LT: Rhee: Yeah, he was maybe out of it for maybe two, three weeks. He got surgery, but then he was back in the game after that…so it wasn’t too bad.

SOFREP: They [the readers] wondered how bad that guy was injured; some didn’t realize that superficial head wounds tend to bleed that much. Once he realized he was OK, he wanted a souvenir pic of it. 

LT Rhee: (laughs) I think he was pretty out of it; he had a concussion.

SOFREP: You grew up in the States, right?

LT Rhee: I did. So, I was born in South Korea, but I grew up in the States. Elementary school, Junior High School, High School…all the way to college. I went to VMI, Virginia Military Institute.

SOFREP: I understand that after you graduated, you went back to Korea. 

LT Rhee: After I graduated from VMI, I went back to Korea, joined the Navy, went through officer candidate school (OCS), got commissioned, and became a Korean SEAL. Then I did a couple of deployments in Somalia. Then after these deployments, I had an opportunity to go to US SEAL training…US BUD/S…I applied for that and did that. I think it was about two weeks before graduation, the commander of BCT at the time, he came up to me and said I was hand-selected for SQT, which is SEAL Qualification Training. So I actually got to go through the entire SEAL pipeline. BUD/S, the junior officer training course, and SQT. It was pretty much a two-year pipeline…I got pinned, then I came back to Korea.

SOFREP: So you were actually a member of the US military and Korean military concurrently? 

LT Rhee: Yeah, in a way. So I got to go through Korean SEAL training and US SEAL training. So, I have two tridents.

SOFREP: You’re probably the only one. I’m not aware of anyone else who’s done that. 

LT Rhee: Yeah, I believe that I’m the only foreign officer that was able to able to go to SQT, not just the only foreign officer, but the only foreigner, enlisted or officer, I was the only one who was able to go to SQT.

SOFREP: Did you ever deploy with the US SEALS? 

LT Rhee: No… uh, actually, in a way, I did in Ukraine because there were a few team guys there…US team guys.

SOFREP: I remember hearing in the interview after the combat footage on the YouTube video that your government, the South Korean government, wasn’t letting people go to Ukraine. 

LT: Rhee: That’s correct; it’s against the law to go to Ukraine.

SOFREP: Has anyone come after you for that once you got back? 

LT Rhee: (smiles) Oh, yeah, I had 15 cops waiting for me. So, we landed and were taxiing to the door. Before the door opened, there was an announcement that everyone on the plane had to stay seated; no one could get up. Once the door opened, all these dudes started pouring into the plane. They came up to my seat, showed me their badge, and said, “It’s time to go.”  I counted them and thought, “you sent 15 suits after me; I wasn’t going to make a run for it.” (laughing). But they didn’t put handcuffs on me. They questioned me and told me that because we still have COVID restrictions in Korea, I’d have to be self-isolated for a week, and I would get my investigation after that.

SOFREP: And you had a torn ACL at the time, so you really weren’t going anywhere. How’s that doing now?

LT Rhee: I was first diagnosed at the Ukrainian military hospital, and they said it was ACL tears and I got checked in Korea when I got back, and my Korean doctors are saying that I tore my meniscus…in both of my knees. So, I’m going to go through surgery in mid-July, and fortunately, it’s not going to be a very big surgery; they’re 100% that I’ll get better, back to my feet within a few months. That was ultimately the reason I ended up leaving the country and coming back to Korea.

SOFREP: How was the medical care you received in Ukraine? 

LT Rhee:  In Ukraine, especially on the front lines, there aren’t any adequate hospitals. Even on operations, there’s pretty much no MEDEVAC or CASEVAC plan…so, medically, it’s really tough out there. The biggest military hospital would be in Kyiv; even in that hospital, I noticed that their operating rooms aren’t very sanitary because there are so many operations being conducted there. Obviously, they’ve been overloaded because of the war. It’s a tough situation.

SOFREP: So, how long were you in country? 

LT Rhee: I was in country for approximately three months.

SOFREP: Do you plan on going back after your knee rehab? 

LT Rhee: Yeah, that’s the plan. After my whole situation in Korea, I’m not sure how that’s going to work. I’m going to try to request permission now that we have a new President and a new administration…the atmosphere is a lot different now. We’ll see. I can’t be certain for now, but personally, yes, I’d like to go back. I have my teammates…I talked to one of them today; he’s a former agency guy and a former Green Beret, and he’s like, “you need to come back out here, you know,” and I’m like, yeah, man, I miss it. (smiling broadly) I do want to go back. So, we’ll see what happens.

SOFREP: From our end, we’re hearing that the Russians are pretty jacked up, there are morale issues, resupply issues, and troops are abandoning their posts and refusing to go back. Nothing seems to be happening to them as a result. Have you seen this? 

LT Rhee:  Well, morale is definitely bad, and I saw that first hand. I’ve worked with the Ukrainian Navy SEALS, the 73rd Center, and on the last operation where we were working together, they caught a few Russians. And what Russians are telling us, the prisoners, they were saying that a lot of them are deserting and there’s a full-scale operation with the Russians trying to find their own deserters (laughs) So, that’s how bad it is. In terms of equipment and weapons, they definitely have good weapons out there, but they also have the sh*tty side as well. Because Russia is so big, and their military is so huge, you’ll see both sides.

I remember being told before going to Ukraine people were telling me, “Oh, their training isn’t very good, their technology sucks,” and whatever, but when I got there, I’ve seen some good fighters. I’ve s en some good planning on their part as well, and I saw the part they weren’t very good at. But, for the most part, I think their strategy has definitely changed after losing Kyiv, Bucha, and Irpin. So, they definitely brought in new officers to change up their strategy, to change up their tactics…and it’s getting tough now.

SOFREP: Why do you think they have retreated to the eastern part of the country to regroup instead of trying to take everything at once? 

LT Rhee: Yeah, they realized it was just too tough…they did a lot of cowboy sh*t at the beginning of the war, and they got all the way to the outskirts of Kyiv and were almost successful at it, too; that’s the scary thing. But I think they realized that the Ukrainian fighting spirit it’s strong. So the  thought, “We can’t do this; we’re just stretched too thin.” So they pulled back, concentrated most of their forces in the east, and in the south, near the Black Sea, and they definitely changed up their strategies because they were taking a lot of losses.

On the Ukrainian side, especially the US…the international community, they’re coming together…they’re helping the war effort. You’ve got the International Legion like I was part of; you have advisors like me going in there and working with the Ukrainian Special Forces. So, I think it’s really pissing off the Russians. But I  don’t believe the Russians will be successful in taking over the country, that’s for sure. I think they’re going to have a tough time even gaining more ground…but we’ll see. What I m worried about is that people are starting to forget about what is going on right now…the war is dragging out; it’s going on for a while, and people are not interested in the war anymore, which could result in the international community not helping as much. But, at the same time, the Ukrainians, they are losing soldiers. They have about 200 soldiers dying each day, so if their numbers are going down and people are not interested in the war, then that might be catastrophic in the future.

So, I’m what I’m trying to do out here in Korea is let people know that there’s still a lot of fighting going on. Ukrainians, they still need all the help they can get. The international community needs to support the war effort, so that’s one of the things I’m trying to do.

SOFREP: Do you think the international aid is being put to good use? All the weaponry that has been sent? 

LT Rhee: Oh, yeah. It’s helping tremendously. My unit got to use the Javelins that were sent over. I know the howitzers they were coming over as I was doing my last operation, and they’re helping a lot. I mean, it’s actually changing the tide of the war. So, I  hope that they continue to go to Ukraine, and it’s not just the Javelins or the howitzers…I know switchblades went in as well. I was just talking to my former teammates who utilizes switchblades very well, and they were able to get a lot of good kills with them.

So hopefully that kind of support…you know the humanitarian support is very important as well, the water, the food, the MREs and all that stuff, but the main [thing] would be the weapons, and I hope that doesn’t stop, especially from the US because they can’t send troops over officially, so, what can they do? Continue with the arms. That’s gonna really change the tide of war.

I’m really grateful to the US as well; most of the International Legion are Americans most of my teammates were Americans, so the US definitely has a foothold in Ukraine; it’s pretty crazy. I think most of the Legionnaires are American or British.

SOFREP: We really don’t hear a lot in the mainstream media about individual US citizens getting involved in the fighting. You’ll hear about the occasional SF guy taking early retirement, and then a few weeks later, he is on a plane to Ukraine, but that’s about it. 

LT Rhee: Oh, yeah, there are guys like that. You’ve got a whole bunch of guys. You’ve got guys from the 75th Ranger Regiment, from the SF Groups, from the SEAL teams, from JSOC, from the Agency…It’s the same with the British side as well, SAS guys, paratroopers, good bunch of guys.

LT Rhee’s team taking out some bad guys. Image Credit: LT Ken Rhee

Everyone here at SOFREP thanks LT Rhee for taking the time to talk with us about his experiences in Ukraine. We wish him the best with this surgery and hope that he realizes his wish to get back out there in the action again.

You can keep track of him on his Instagram account here.

Russia’s Trump Card: Is Wagner’s African Playbook Running in Ukraine?

As the war in Ukraine continues, there is increased scrutiny of the Russian government’s global activities. In Africa, the newest development uses Russian mercenaries, most prominently the Wagner group, to achieve Russian interests. Even if the mercenaries are not particularly effective at defeating rebel groups, their appeal to African leaders and ability to implant themselves into the host country’s political system makes them difficult for the international community to counter. 

Using mercenaries offers the Russian state several benefits. Firstly, it allows Moscow’s most controversial activity in Africa to remain deniable, even if Wagner’s connections to the Kremlin are common knowledge and Wagner’s deployments are preceded by a deal with the Russian government. It also allows Russia more access to gold, diamonds, and other precious resources, which are suitable for the economy and a small way to mitigate the impact of Ukraine-related sanctions. Furthermore, because Wagner’s ability to operate depends on its link to the Kremlin and the Russian state’s willingness to overlook the constitutional ban on mercenaries, there is almost no risk that Wagner will operate against Moscow’s interests. Lastly, When Wagner mercenaries die, which is not infrequent, Russia owes the public no explanation.

The largest Wagner Group telegram channel posted this image (left) of their contractors posing with a sledgehammer in Kherson Oblast [Source: Twitter/@GuinieZoo_Intel]
Wagner initially fought for Russian interests in Eastern Ukraine and Syria but quickly secured contracts in Africa supporting then-President Omar Al-Bashir in Sudan and Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar. However, in the Central African Republic and now Mali, they developed their playbook of opportunistically exploiting ill-will towards France and the E.U. to secure lasting contracts and political influence.

The Wagner Playbook in Africa: The Central African Republic and Beyond

Wagner’s appeal to some African leaders is simple. They offer to train the military, act like a praetorian guard, and conduct counterinsurgency operations at a relatively low cost. The deal is incredibly enticing if a state or its people are unsatisfied with its current security assistance. Former French colonies, particularly those with an ongoing conflict and French military presence, are especially susceptible. The Central African Republic, for instance, relied on French, EU, and U.N. missions as their primary security partners from 2014 until 2018. Then, as it became clear that peacekeepers and French forces were unable or unwilling to stem the violence or defeat CAR’s many rebel groups, President Touadera reached out to Russia. Alongside a shipment of weapons, some 170 mercenaries arrived under several names, including Sewa Security Services and COSI.  

https://twitter.com/banko416/status/1544638366049763328

Wagner’s presence jumped dramatically in response to a rebel offensive on the capital. Rebel coalitions overthrew the government multiple times in CAR, making the newest effort, led by a former President, an existential threat to President Touadera and Russian interests. Reinforcing over 2,000 personnel, Wagner halted the rebel advance and launched a counterattack that reconquered massive territory in a few months. 

Wagner also offers a few ways to pay for its services. The traditional way to pay mercenaries costs thousands of dollars per mercenary per month. Some countries, like the Central African Republic, offered Wagner access to resources such as gold and diamonds. 

Engagement with Wagner also comes with a constellation of other companies linked to the same group of Oligarchs, most notably Putin associate Yevgeny Prigozhin. The oligarch’s companies range from security, such as Wagner and Sewa Security Services, to mining and resource extraction, such as M-Invest. Wagner protects resource extraction sites, such as in Sudan, and secures mines to bring Russian mining interests or extort the miners and seize the resources. There are also media and disinformation efforts, such as Prigozhin’s infamous “troll farm.” Wagner produced a trilogy of films about itself, the first of which Touriste was shot in the Central African Republic and screened to the Central African audiences in the capital city, Bangui.  

Once Wagner is in the country, the results on the ground are more mixed than the sales pitch. They can be effective in a conventional fight against lightly amred rebel groups, as demonstrated by their counteroffensive in the Central African Republic, but they struggle to win counterinsurgencies. In Mozambique, Wagner took severe losses against Islamist militants in Cabo Delgado, and their relations with the Mozambican government deteriorated to the point of ending the mission. 

In terms of public relations and international image, employing Wagner undermines goodwill towards African leaders. Wagner is almost always too heavy-handed in its operations, leading to systematic abuses against civilians in pursuit of rebels. Worse still, they encourage the local security forces they accompany to do the same. U.N. reports from the Central African Republic found that Wagner and the Central African Armed Forces (FACA) were responsible for nearly half of all confirmed instances of abuse. 

Wagner and Russia use the international isolation of their host states to increase their influence. The President of the Central African Republic has a Russian national security advisor, mandated teaching Russian in schools, and now seeks to make Russian an official language, along with a raft of changes allowing him to run for a third term. More importantly, CAR appears no closer to peace as fighting continues, and Wagner-led FACA forces create more grievances for people in central and eastern CAR than they solve. Wagner’s ability to personally protect the President means that his fortunes can rise even if his country falls. Russia supported anti-French protests and fund some civil society figures, accompanied by legitimate anger at France for its decades of paternalistic policies in Africa, ensure that there will be some level of support in Capital cities independent of the performance of presidents and juntas as heads of state. 

Wagner in Mali, The Newest Mission

Mali, Wagner’s newest mission in Africa, follows the same playbook as the Central African Republic. Mali’s years-long conflict against rebels and Al-Qaeda and ISIS-affiliated extremist groups led to French intervention, an E.U. training mission and task force, and one of the U.N.’s largest current peacekeeping missions. After a series of coups in 2020 and 2021, the governing junta decided to close the airspace over Mali and expel the French mission. In September 2021, press reports revealed that the committee was negotiating with Russia to send Wagner forces to help fight extremists.

Wagner and Russia played on the Malian government’s dissatisfaction with France’s inability to restore order and the post-coup junta’s poor relationship with the international community to push anti-French propaganda and promise results in exchange for monthly payments and access to resources in the Southwest of the country. Like CAR, the mission has grown in scope, pushed the junta away from its traditional security partners, and now wields significant influence. 

Wagner has already engaged in severe human rights abuses in Mali. U.N. reports note a 300% increase in civilian deaths compared to prior years, a disproportionate number committed by security forces. The numbers are likely higher since Wagner, and the Malian government refuses to cooperate with U.N. investigations. The prime example is the town of Moura, where the Wagner and the Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) likely killed 300-600 people while “liberating” it from extremists. According to eyewitness accounts, Wagner and FAMA detained, interrogated, and executed most men in the town, regardless of affiliation with extremists. Malian authorities refused to allow the U.N. to investigate with support from Russia in the U.N. Security Council. They even detained investigators when they approached the town.

The E.U.’s Plan to Counter Wagner

Several countries are looking for ways to contain and degrade Wagner’s operations in Africa. The U.S. Department of Treasury and its European counterparts have Prighozhin and other associates under sanctions. In addition, Wagner will likely feature prominently in the Countering Malign Russian Activities Act, which passed the House of Representatives and awaits approval. The U.K. Foreign Affairs Committee has also launched an investigation into Russian mercenaries. 

While most anti-Wagner efforts are nascent at the national level, a recently leaked E.U. report from the European External Action Service (EEAS) proposes taking ambitious steps to contain Russian mercenaries. According to the EEAS, Wagner’s activities in Mali forced the E.U. to suspend its training mission, leading to the erosion of democratic principles and worse humanitarian outcomes. The EEAS wants to launch three missions in West Africa and the Gulf of Guinea that go beyond the typical E.U. training mission. These missions would be trained, equipped, accompanied, and virtually guaranteed that E.U. soldiers would enter combat. 

Without overwhelming support from its member states, the E.U.’s plan is dead on arrival. Brussels is betting that improving its reliability as a security partner and making some efforts to counter Russian disinformation will prevent other West African nations, particularly Burkina Faso and Niger, who face the same security environment as Mali and are reportedly next on the Wagner hit list. However, the obstacles to implementing the plan are likely insurmountable for the E.U. in the near term. 

For all the talk of launching a broad effort across West Africa, doing so actually requires the countries in West Africa to be on board. Niger and Burkina Faso requested E.U. support, but only for logistical support. While they may be interested in an E.U. training, equipping, and accompanying the mission, overstepping their request dramatically might undermine public confidence in their governance and appear to have less sovereignty over their affairs. 

It is also unclear if there is sufficient appetite for the E.U. member states to contribute troops for three additional missions with a more aggressive mandate. In terms of deployments, smaller countries might be squeamish about large implementations. The E.U. might be worried that deploying former colonial powers like France would make the missions susceptible to the same kind of Russian propaganda they seek to counter. Most democracies are casualty-averse, meaning that any significant reversal could compromise participation. Lastly, with Europe’s newfound concern for Russia comes a desire to keep within their borders or contribute to NATO’s frontier with Russia. 

It’s always possible that the E.U. and other efforts contain the group, but generally, Wagner is defeated by its host government. For example, the Mozambican government ended Wagner’s mission following its poor performance, not an E.U. mission in a neighboring country. Moreover, detaching Wagner will be tough without sustained diplomatic and political pressure for those increasingly relying on Wagner to prop up the regime and personalize control over the state, such as CAR and Mali. 

This is a user-submitted piece by Marcel Plichta. Marcel Plichta is a Ph.D. Candidate in International Relations at the University of St Andrews and a former intelligence analyst for the U.S. Department of Defense. He has written on African security issues for Newsweek, Defense One, and World Politics Review. All views are his own.

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Watch: Kraken Special Forces Annihilate Russian Headquarters

Here Comes the Boom

Our friends with the Kraken Special Forces unit in Ukraine are at it again. Watch as they target and destroy a building the Russians were using as their local headquarters.

Ukrainian Kraken Special Forces destroy Russian headquarters. Video courtesy of YouTube and Zenger

You can see Russian soldiers moving from the building on the right to the building on the left as the video cuts to Kraken forces loading a field artillery piece dialed in on a house that the Russian invaders are using as their local headquarters. Conveniently, on the roof of the structure, it is already labeled “Enemy Headquarters” in Ukrainian and English. Finally, at 0:17 seconds in, we see that house blow apart, mostly in three directions away from the other structure. I’m sure there are some broken windows, but everything else seems intact.

According to the overhead drone footage, what remains looks like an F5 tornado ripped it timber from timber. This is an excellent example of the abilities of modern, relatively low-tech field artillery. The Kraken must have been well trained and are putting these skills to deadly use.

It’s currently unclear exactly where this video was taken. Newsweek reports that it was obtained by them Tuesday the 28th along with a statement saying, “The artillery of our unit continues to destroy the occupiers. This time the enemy headquarters was struck.”

Kraken Regiment members Oleg Sapachenko and Andrii Maleev in Ruska Lozova, on May 30. Image Credit: Wojciech Grzedzinski

Death Toll

The majority of information for this piece was sourced through Newsweek via Zenger news and the Kraken Regiment. They provided some interesting information regarding the latest death/damage toll due to Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.

They tell us that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that between February 24 and June 28, Russia had lost about 35,250 personnel, 1,567 tanks, 3,704 armored combat vehicles, 778 artillery units, 243 multiple launch rocket systems, 102 air defense systems, 217 warplanes, 185 helicopters, 636 drones, 139 cruise missiles, 14 warships, 2,589 motor vehicles and fuel tankers, and 61 units of special equipment.

Russia last officially announced its military losses a little more after it invaded Ukraine, claiming that 1,351 troops were killed.

I’d wager the actual number is somewhere between the two.

Watch the full video below: